If you’ve also been following the market these weeks, you’ll know that the behavior of cryptocurrencies has been quite interesting. Among the most prominent cryptocurrencies we find Ethereum or Bitcoin, which a couple of weeks ago reached its all-time high again.
Ethereum, for its part, has managed to recover the $2,600 level after weeks of sideways movement and uncertainty. Although this growth hasn’t been explosive, Ethereum rose by approximately 12% from the May lows, going from $2,320 to the current $2,620 (at the time of writing this article), according to CoinMarketCap data.
Why is this rebound relevant? In previous cycles, the technical signals we can see now have coincided with altseason precursors. This leads users and analysts to discuss a possible rebound that could trigger a bullish cycle.
It has finally happened.👀🔥$ETH has reclaimed the mid-line in the 2W Gaussian Channel.
Each time it managed to do so, strong rallies followed for the entire altcoin market (2021 and 2024 as an example).
Altseason isn’t just a meme.. it’s coming ladies & gentleman pic.twitter.com/jQx1SCXvMo
— 𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 🧲 (@el_crypto_prof) May 27, 2025
What is the Gauss Channel and Why is it Relevant for Ethereum?
The first and most important thing is to be clear about what the Gauss Channel is and how it applies to Ethereum’s price. Broadly speaking, this is a technical analysis tool that helps identify trends and dynamic support and resistance levels in prices.
Its operation is based on the distribution of the famous Gauss bell curve, a statistical model that explains how most data clusters form a symmetrical curve, similar to a bell.
This indicator, when applied to market prices, creates a channel formed by two bands (upper and lower) and a midline, which adjust according to market volatility. This system allows the limits to be set as dynamic supports and resistances, making it easier to detect possible reversals or continuations in the trend.
In the specific case of Ethereum, this channel is used to measure the strength and direction of its trend over weeks. As seen in the analysis presented by Cointelegraph, Ethereum’s price is right now at a key point with respect to the channel’s midline.
When Ethereum trades below the midline, it indicates weakness in the trend; however, a weekly close above it is, historically, a sign of bullish momentum, which can anticipate a sustained rally.
That Ethereum closes above the Gauss Channel midline is considered by technical analysts as a trend change signal. This is an interpretation based on previous cycles where this close has coincided with the start of significant bullish moves that have driven ETH’s price. An example is how in 2020 and 2021, every time ETH managed to close above that line on the weekly chart, important rises followed. These data can be checked in the chart presented by TradingView.
Currently, ETH’s price seeks to consolidate above that midline, generating expectations about whether the entry into an altseason is being created. That is, a moment when altcoins outperform Bitcoin in performance.
Price chart ETH/USD pair. Source: TradingView
The Historical Pattern: What Happened When ETH Surpassed This Line Before?
In previous cycles, Ethereum has also managed to close above the Gauss Channel midline on the two-week chart. In these situations, the market has experienced quite interesting altseason rallies:
- 2020-2021: After crossing the midline, ETH’s price increased by 1,820%, going from $100 to over $4,800 in November 2021. After this move, a bull market was triggered, marked by altcoin growth with more than 5 all-time highs in different cryptocurrencies, one of the most intense seasons in the market.
Price history November 2021- ETH. Source: Coinmarketcap
- 2022 (exception): In this year, a similar cross occurred that was invalidated during a general market correction. ETH’s price failed to consolidate the momentum and fell back to yearly lows. This highlights that no indicator is infallible, and sometimes patterns are not enough to get ahead of the market.
- 2023: However, in 2023 and after a new cross of the midline, ETH increased by 50%-60%, holding its value between $1,500-$2,600. This move was accompanied by a general rise in altcoins and renewed enthusiasm for projects alternative to Bitcoin. It’s worth noting this rally was not as explosive as in 2021.
This history has led to the estimation of a new altseason to come. It’s worth noting that the Gauss Channel is not the only indicator making analysts consider this possibility. As the recent TradingView report tells us, the altseason outlook for 2025 is also supported by the repetition of this pattern after a Bitcoin Halving.
This pattern has repeated in 2017 and 2021, when exactly 400 days after the Halving, Bitcoin’s dominance fell, triggering a surge in altcoins. Don’t forget the last halving took place in April 2024, and we are approaching that same period in each cycle.
Source: TradingView
🟠 Mixed Market Signals: Optimism or Caution?
Faced with these bullish signals, some prominent analysts have spoken out. One of them is Wimar X, who expects the altcoin market cap to rise to $15 trillion in the coming days.
ALTSEASON IS ABOUT TO START 🚨
Historically, #Bitcoin Dominance drops every ~400 days after the Halving, with the ATL in 100 days.
Altcoins’ market cap will hit $15 TRILLION this cycle.
Here’s a list of low-caps with 1000x potential 🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/aPko0SuaDJ
— Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) May 26, 2025
Adding to his opinion is crypto analyst Moustache, who also supports the idea that, according to the Gauss Channel fractal, we are on the verge of an altcoin rally. Moustache notes that Ethereum’s recent recovery above the Gauss Channel midline is a clear sign that an altseason could be on the way, supporting this view with data from previous cycles where ETH surpassed this level and the altcoin market saw increases of over 1,400%.
We are in a macroeconomic context where interest rates are still high and global uncertainty conditions investors. However, confidence in altcoins has been renewed thanks to factors such as institutional interest in Ethereum.
In such an uncertain environment, volatility continues to play a leading role in the market, where ETH faces key resistance levels around $3,200, according to TradingView analysis. It’s also noted that a breakout above this level could open the way to a previous cycle high of up to $4,100 last July.
What is an Altseason and Why is Everyone Talking About It?
Altseasons, or altcoin seasons, are one of the most anticipated phenomena in the crypto market, and for good reason, as it’s the period when cryptocurrencies alternative to Bitcoin experience notable rises.
In these seasons, users opt for cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, or Cardano, as they tend to be more profitable than Bitcoin.
There are certain indicators that make it easier to identify when we are in an altseason:
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Altcoins outperform Bitcoin. For example, if BTC rises 10%, altcoins can rise 30% or much more in the same period.
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Bitcoin dominance falls. Although the market increases, BTC’s market cap decreases, as the real protagonism in the market increase is with altcoins.
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Capital rotation. In these situations, investors take profits and move them to altcoins to achieve higher returns.
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High volatility. In these periods, large daily moves are common. It’s easy to see altcoins doubling in value in FOMO or speculative peaks.
In Bitcoin’s trajectory, these markets usually follow a Bitcoin rally, when its price stabilizes or even corrects. These patterns have been seen before, such as in 2017-2018, when Ethereum rose from $8 to over $1,400 or Ripple (XRP) soared from $0.006 to $3.84, among others.
🟣How to Prepare for an Altseason: Risks and Opportunities
If we finally enter an altseason, it can mean unique opportunities, but it’s important to keep in mind that it also involves risks. These risks are greater for investors and holders of altcoins. Therefore, adopting a strategic and realistic approach can help maximize profits and protect against losses in this volatile environment.
Before diving into this market, during an altcoin season it’s key to analyze how solid the market is and whether the altcoin in question has value on its own. It’s also advisable to avoid low-liquidity or speculative projects.
It’s essential to stay informed about market signals and the macroeconomic context. While high volatility can generate quick gains, it can also cause losses just as easily. Especially with low-cap tokens where any move shakes the market.
Some common strategies to go through altseason with less risk are:
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Rebalancing: It’s key to periodically adjust the proportion of each asset according to market performance. This way, gains are taken on the way up and losses are limited on the way down.
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Diversification: Although it’s a classic alternative, many users ignore it. Avoiding concentrating all investment in a single asset helps spread risk across several solid projects and reduces the probability of losses.
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Risk management: Tools like stop-loss help clearly define loss limits and set targets to avoid overexposure.
In these scenarios, using noncustodial platforms is important, as users can maintain full control over their funds and keys. This minimizes the risk of lockups or restrictions.
An example of this type of platform is Bitnovo, which facilitates the management and quick exchange of different altcoins in critical moments like this. Preparing for an alt season means both identifying growth opportunities and seeking the right mechanisms and tools.
